Tracking the data as is comes out (excluding China) on the Johns Hopkins coronavirus map (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), the time it takes for the # of infected to double is now at 4.23 days.
At this time, CDC says we have 1323 confirmed cases in the USA.
IF we believe the CDC numbers for the USA, this tends to indicate that we had 20 infected people in America, back on 2/13. This ALSO means we’ll break 1 million sick by April 19. With 20% needing hospitalization, and using Aesops’ observations, it will be around this time that the hospitals are simply overwhelmed.
If we assume the CDC numbers are off by a factor of only four (i.e., not 1323 cases confirmed, but 5000 actual) at this time, We break the 1 million mark (and overwhelming of hospitals) by ~4/13.
If we assume CDC numbers are off by a factor of…
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