Since the outbreak of the CHINESE WUHAN coronavirus, I’ve been watching very carefully as things progressed. With an R0 of 4-6.7 (depending on whose data you believe), and an asymptomatic period (yet still contagious) of up to 27 days, it didn’t take me more than a few minutes to run through the ramifications, and say “oh, SHIT.”
But continuing to watch as this thing moved on, the numbers just didn’t add up. It was obvious China was bullshitting their numbers, and probably still are. If we ignore the China numbers, and instead look at the Johns Hopkins coronavirus map, excluding China, we find the doubling time to be ~4.2 days, which is really bad.
The Lancet published an initial study saying 83% of those exposed became infected, and of those, a mortality rate of 15% (total mortality rate of 12.45% of the population), it basically mean that 1 in 8…
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